Exclusive Analysis explains the threat from international terrorists

Exclusive Analysis released its Global Jihad Quarterly Update, which provides an overview of key trends in global terrorism affecting international companies and organisations.

US drone strikes have taken a heavy toll on Pakistan-based al-Qaeda leaders, most recently Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, who was killed on 7th October 2010, according to the update. However, Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is increasingly taking on more of the core overseas attack planning functions.

The unsuccessful cargo aircraft plot on 29th October 2010 shows that AQAP is effectively combining a local insurgency with planning attacks on overseas targets, continued the update.

Two suicide bombings in two months in Karachi, Pakistan implies a deliberate policy by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its allies to begin regular attacks on the city, said Exclusive Analysis. “Any attacks on local government and party officers or against Shia targets during Muharram celebrations next month will likely result in widespread communal violence. However, TTP’s ability to carry out its threats of attacks in the US and Europe seem much less probable.”

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of seven mining employees, including five French nationals, in Niger on 16 September 2010. The group expressed the view that uranium mining, alongside oil and gas extraction, is a theft of Muslim resources. This new standpoint is a pragmatic, rather than ideological, one, commented Exclusive Analysis. And it reflects the group’s shift in focus to mining areas in the Sahel region after failing to inflict damage on Algeria’s energy industry.

In Afghanistan, intelligence obtained in September from a German national led security services to warn of possible coordinated shooting attacks in the UK, Germany and France, similar to those in Mumbai in 2008. However, the lack of arrests in these countries suggests that plans were still at a very early stage, said Exclusive Analysis.