Emerging Risks

Gray-zone aggression: a new risk moves centre stage for business

2026-03-04T09:00:00

war tank laptop

Ambiguous, deniable and strategically choreographed actions are reshaping the geopolitical risk landscape. A new report argues that “gray-zone aggression” is no longer a niche security concern but a material enterprise risk demanding board-level attention.

Global stability is entering a new phase, defined not by formal declarations of conflict but by actions that sit between peace and war.

A new report from the Willis Research Network, produced in collaboration with Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, argues that gray-zone aggression has evolved into a material threat vector for businesses across sectors.

Five years ago, the issue barely registered on corporate risk radars. Today, it is reshaping geopolitical risk appetite, testing insurance policy wordings and challenging resilience strategies from energy and aviation to retail and logistics.

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