Swiss Re’s crowd-sourcing tool SONAR identifies and evaluates new threats on the horizon

SONAR table

Financial repression, challenges caused by the internet of things, deglobalisation, political conflict and large natural catastrophes are likely be key risks in the next decade, according to Swiss Re.

The reinsurer’s third New emerging risk insights report, published this week, is based on the SONAR process: a crowd-sourcing tool drawing on Swiss Re’s internal risk management expertise to identify and evaluate new threats.

The reinsurer defines emerging risks as newly developing or changing risks that are difficult to quantify and whose potential business effect is not yet sufficiently taken into account.

Within the next three years, the report identifies deglobalisation, super nat cats and “the great monetary experiment” as the emerging risks with highest potential impact.

SONAR table

SONAR table

Swiss Re group chief risk officer Patrick Raaflaub said: “In a future in which change is the only constant, foresight information is crucial to prepare for tomorrow’s challenges. This report seeks to provide an early indication of what might lurk beyond the horizon.

“Although many of the topics presented might never materialise into significant risks, some definitely will. The earlier we start adapting to these changes, the better prepared we will be.”

The report focuses on a wide variety of risks, relevant to life and non-life insurance areas. Highlights from this third edition include scarcity of raw materials, increased traffic in the skies, decaying critical infrastructure and the use of self-tracking tools. Pandemic risks, the proliferation of vertical cities and the dangers of LED light are also detailed within the report.